As the 2024 race heats up, Vice President Kamala Harris has emerged as the presumptive Democratic nominee following President Joe Biden’s decision to bow out of the reelection race.
However, the path ahead is far from clear-cut.
Recent polling data from Pennsylvania, conducted from July 23-25, indicates a tight contest.
Voters in this key battleground state show a slight preference for Harris over former President Donald Trump, but the margin is just one point, which falls within the survey’s 3.46 percentage point margin of error.
This tight race underscores how competitive the election is likely to be.
Third-Party Impact and Key Contenders
When considering third-party candidates, the race becomes even tighter. The Commonwealth Foundation survey reveals both Trump and Harris at 44 percent, with independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. trailing at 6 percent.
The presence of third-party candidates could play a crucial role in swaying the final outcome.
Speculations Around Harris’s Running Mate
Harris has yet to announce her running mate, but speculation is rife. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro is on a shortlist that also includes Arizona Governor Mark Kelly and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz.
All three are white men, which some argue would complement Harris’s diverse background as a Black and Asian woman.
Shapiro, along with Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, will be hitting the campaign trail around Philadelphia to support Harris.
Trump vs. Harris: A Close Race
Another poll by Fox News, released on Friday, shows Trump and Harris neck-and-neck in Pennsylvania, each with 49 percent support.
This state, with its 19 Electoral College votes, is crucial for any candidate aiming for victory in November.
Trump won Pennsylvania by a narrow 0.7 percent in 2016, but the state flipped to Biden in 2020 with a 1.2 percent margin.
For 2024, Pennsylvania remains one of the three key swing states, alongside Michigan and Wisconsin, according to Cook Political Report.
Shapiro’s Potential Impact
If Harris selects Shapiro as her running mate, it could be a strategic move to secure Pennsylvania’s crucial votes. Whitmer, who had once considered a presidential run, suggests that Harris might announce her choice for running mate within the next week, just before the Democratic National Convention.
However, Shapiro’s support for private-school vouchers could be a double-edged sword.
Although it might appeal to some voters, it has sparked criticism from pro-public education groups.
More than two dozen such groups have urged Harris not to pick Shapiro, citing his stance on school privatization as a point of contention.
Pro-education advocate Beth Lewis expressed concerns, stating, “We don’t need to be soft on this issue because public education is the cornerstone of our democracy.”
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