In a poignant reflection, journalist David Patrikarakos paints a vivid picture of Ukraine’s transformative journey since Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Crimea in 2014, culminating in a full-scale emergence of a new global conflict on February 24, 2022.
Putin’s Imperialism Shatters Post-War Norms
Putin’s audacious act of imperialism shattered the post-war world order, where nations like Russia feigned adherence to international norms, and Europe found security under U.S. guarantees.
Patrikarakos, having reported from all three fronts in Ukraine, presents this not merely as a land-grab but as the genesis of a new global conflict.
Unexpected Unity in the West
Contrary to Putin’s expectations, the West showcased unexpected unity in response to Ukraine’s resistance.
Ukrainians, armed with Western-supplied weapons, defied Putin’s assumptions that their resolve would crumble.
The United States and Europe stepped up to support Ukraine, challenging Putin’s belief that the decadent West lacked the will to confront him.
The Despot Dividend: Advantage Putin
Patrikarakos introduces the concept of the ‘despot dividend,’ emphasizing Putin’s advantages as he exploits the cyclical nature of democracies with election cycles and leaders accountable to their populations.
Putin’s sustained aggression in Ukraine underscores this advantage, as he capitalizes on the West’s divided nature and changing priorities.
Ukraine’s Struggle: A Tale of Resilience and Discontent
Despite an initial surge in Ukrainian successes, Patrikarakos notes a turning point in the conflict, marked by a counteroffensive that fell short of expectations.
The occupied territories witness a sinister ‘Russianisation’ process, threatening the very identity of Ukraine. The journalist reflects on missed opportunities and the avoidable nature of the conflict.
The Numbers Game: Despot Dividend and Attrition
Patrikarakos underscores the stark reality of the war as a game of attrition, with Putin benefiting from the ‘despot dividend.’
Despite staggering Russian casualties, Putin remains unaccountable, while Ukraine, a democratic state with fewer resources, faces the challenge of mobilizing reluctant and inadequately trained recruits.
Political Dysfunction and the Bleak Future
The journalist delves into Ukraine’s political dysfunction, including internal conflicts over recruitment strategies.
The firing of former Chief of Staff Valerii Zaluzhnyi becomes a focal point, revealing political fallout amid diminishing public support for President Zelensky.
With a bleak outlook for the next six months, Ukraine’s goal is to hold existing territory while hoping for sufficient support for a counteroffensive.
U.S. Aid and Potential Setbacks
Patrikarakos highlights the significance of U.S. aid, which has been crucial for Ukraine’s war effort.
However, potential setbacks loom as a $95 billion aid bill faces uncertainties in a Republican-held Congress, with opposition fueled by influential figures like Donald Trump.
The journalist warns against defeatism and emphasizes the stakes involved for the West.
Global Implications: War Beyond Ukraine
The article concludes with a broader perspective, asserting that the war in Ukraine is not isolated but represents a critical juncture for the world order.
The journalist warns against ignoring the conflict, emphasizing that Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran are deeply interested in the outcome.
The potential defeat in Ukraine, Patrikarakos argues, could have far-reaching consequences for the West’s global standing and embolden its adversaries.
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